Small discounts to older resale, large gains later
A common worry about today's ECs is that they launch so close to private prices that there is no room left. Four ECs from 2011 and 2015 are a useful test, because each entered close to the price of an older private condo nearby.
| EC / private resale nearby | Entry year | EC land, psf ppr | Entry median psf, EC / private | EC discount | EC 2025 median psf | Change to 2025, EC / private | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Vales / Compass Heights | 2015 | about $367 | $771 / $849 | 9.2% | $1,596 | +107.0% / +53.6% | 10 |
| Blossom Residences / Maysprings | 2011 | about $271 | $704 / $728 | 3.3% | $1,262 | +79.3% / +61.4% | 14 |
| Arc at Tampines / The Tropica | 2011 | about $302 | $734 / $779 | 5.8% | $1,408 | +91.8% / +66.2% | 14 |
| Bellewoods / Rosewood | 2015 | about $341 | $774 / $781 | 0.9% | $1,345 | +73.8% / +37.9% | 10 |
Source: Condo project pages: annual median prices (PropertyLimBrothers), 2011 – 2025. Extracted 21 Oct 2026.
Annual median prices per square foot of each whole project, not matched units. Entry year: the launch-period calendar year, not the opening-weekend average (Bellewoods launched in 2014; 2015 is its continuing sales). Discount = 1 − EC median ÷ private median in the same year. Changes are cumulative and before costs. Land is per square foot of permitted floor area, a different measure. Rosewood's 2025 median rests on 8 sales.
The Vales in Sengkang sold at a 2015 median of $771 psf, 9.2% below Compass Heights' $849. By 2025 its median was $1,596, up 107.0%; Compass Heights rose 53.6%. Blossom Residences in Bukit Panjang was only 3.3% below Maysprings in 2011 and rose 79.3% to 2025, against 61.4% for Maysprings. Arc at Tampines, 5.8% below The Tropica, rose 91.8% against 66.2%.
The private condos rose too, by 38% to 66%. Part of each EC's lead may be age: the ECs were new when the private condos were already some years old, though the research puts no value on that difference. Location matters as well; each pair is near, not identical. Bellewoods in Woodlands, at 0.9% below Rosewood in 2015, rose 73.8% against 37.9%, but Rosewood's 2025 median rests on only 8 sales.
The bigger gap was to private developer sales
These ECs were close to older resale homes, but far below private developments selling during the same entry year: The Vales was 21.8% below High Park Residences' developer sales, Blossom Residences 36.7% below Foresque Residences' and Arc at Tampines 16.5% below Waterview's (Waterview launched in 2010; the comparison uses its 2011 developer sales). So they are not clean precedents for an EC priced only 3% to 8% below an equally new private home next door. When the 2027 price lists come out, compare each unit with both: completed resale homes, and new private launches of the same age.
Blossom narrowed the gap to Foresque, without closing it
In 2011 Blossom Residences' median was 36.7% below Foresque Residences' developer sales. By 2025 Blossom's median of $1,262 psf was about 21% below Foresque's resale median of $1,595. The gap narrowed a good deal, and Blossom stayed cheaper. Both rose; Blossom rose faster from its lower start.
Before the MOP and after it: two different stages
An EC owner can sell on the open market only after the minimum occupation period (MOP), five years from completion for these projects. Splitting each project's price path at its MOP year shows two stages, and they behaved differently.
| EC (MOP year) | EC: entry year to MOP year | EC: MOP year to 2025 | Private nearby: MOP year to 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Vales (2022) | +59.9% | +29.4% | High Park Residences +18.9%; Compass Heights +31.9% |
| Blossom Residences (2019) | +25.0% | +43.4% | Foresque Residences +38.7%; Maysprings +36.5% |
| Arc at Tampines (2019) | +27.8% | +50.1% | Waterview +43.0%; The Tropica +48.3% |
| Bellewoods (2022) | +44.2% | +20.5% | Rosewood +26.4% |
Source: Condo project pages: annual median prices (PropertyLimBrothers), 2011 – 2025. Extracted 21 Oct 2026.
Changes in whole-year project medians. The MOP year is the calendar year the project's five years from TOP ended, a proxy that includes sales before the date. The two stages compound: The Vales' +59.9% then +29.4% make +107.0%, not +89.3%.
Prices kept rising after the MOP in all four, and in the other five ECs in the same research. But the private homes nearby also rose, and the EC's lead after MOP was less consistent: Bellewoods trailed Rosewood from 2022, The Vales trailed Compass Heights (though not High Park Residences), and two ECs not in the table, The Brownstone and The Criterion, trailed their private comparisons whichever starting year was used. The gains cannot be put down to the MOP itself, or to an EC turning private after ten years. And a buyer of a resale EC after the MOP pays the price the first owner's gain has already reached.
What two owners made, before costs
Published resale records show what the gains looked like for two units. A 1,496 sq ft home at Blossom Residences bought in Q3 2011 for $975,000 was sold in Q4 2022 for $1,680,000, about $705,000 more. A 1,421 sq ft home at Arc at Tampines bought in Q4 2011 for $1,014,600 was sold in Q4 2022 for $1,730,000, about $715,400 more. These are among the larger gains in OrangeTee's research, not typical or median results, and they are before stamp duty, legal fees, interest, renovation and agent's commission.
Why today's launches cost far more
Land is the starting point. EC land now sells for about two to three times the 2011 to 2015 prices, and launch prices have followed. The last four EC launches show the pattern:
| EC (launched) | Land, psf ppr | Launch average, psf | Launch minus land | Land ÷ launch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurelle of Tampines (Mar 2025) | $721 | $1,766 | $1,045 | 40.8% |
| Otto Place (Jul 2025, normal payment scheme) | $701 | $1,700 | $999 | 41.2% |
| Coastal Cabana (Jan 2026) | $729 | $1,734 | $1,005 | 42.0% |
| Rivelle Tampines (Mar 2026) | $768 | $1,893 | $1,125 | 40.6% |
| Average of the four | $1,043.5 | 41.17% |
Source: Executive Condominium sites sold (as at 26 September 2025) (Housing & Development Board), Land sold 2022 – 2024. Extracted 21 Oct 2026.
Land is priced per square foot of the floor area allowed on the site (psf ppr); a launch average is per square foot of the homes sold. The two are measured on different floor areas, so the last two columns compare prices; they are not the developer's costs or margin.
On average their launch price was $1,043.5 psf above their land price, and the land price was 41.17% of the launch price. The two prices are measured on different floor areas, so these are pricing patterns, not the developer's costs or margin. Land cost explains why prices start high. It sets no floor under resale prices and says nothing about a buyer's profit.
What this means for Solano Grand and Wynwood Grand
CDL's two ECs, both aiming to launch in the first quarter of 2027, have no price lists yet. Applying the two patterns above to their land prices gives rough gauges: Solano Grand around $1,810 to $1,870 psf and Wynwood Grand around $1,830 to $1,900 psf. Each article sets out the workings, a budget table and the homes to compare with. The actual prices could be higher than both gauges.
Their buyers would book in 2027, collect the keys when the project is completed, and then live there for five years from that completion date before an open-market sale. Both sites' land tenders closed in August 2025, so the five-year MOP applies; the 10-year MOP is for EC land tenders that closed on or after 8 May 2026.